Cheaper, short-haul, all-inclusive: how travel will look in 2023
The latest intelligence from operators on what their clients want gives some intriguing insights into next year’s holiday habits
We travellers are getting used to headwinds. No sooner do we finally emerge from the restrictions of a three-year pandemic than we face a divided world, high inflation and a deepening recession. Yet the impression I got from talking to some of the country’s leading travel companies last week is that they are upbeat about the new year.
Bookings are flowing in and customers are still prioritising next year’s holidays, even when they are having to hold back on other indulgences. But we are – apparently – adapting our behaviour to these more straitened times. We are looking for better value and to make the most of the holidays we can afford. And that is having some interesting effects on where and how we are planning to travel. Here are some insights gleaned from 20 different agents, operators and airlines about what we will be doing differently in 2023.
Nearer
Perhaps because of tightened budgets, perhaps because we are feeling more risk-averse, a survey by online agency Trivago suggests that more of us will limit our horizons in 2023 and stick to European destinations. Jet2 is certainly banking on increased demand for short-haul flights to the Med by expanding its operation from Stansted and adding routes to classic destinations including the Balearics, Croatia, Greece and Turkey.
Overall, it is increasing its summer programme by more than 10 per cent. Villa operator Simpson, meanwhile, is backing Turkey – which did exceptionally well for it this summer – to remain a favourite destination, with Crete also proving popular, especially the quieter, less-developed eastern end of the island. And The Thinking Traveller, which also offers villas, is seeing increased interest in lesser-known Greek islands, including Patmos and Serifos. In colder climes, adventure operator Discover the World reports a spike in bookings for summer holidays in Scandinavia.
Further
Despite an increase in short-haul travel, significant numbers of us still want to make up for lost time and head further afield. Long-haul market leader Trailfinders has seen a surge in bookings to Australia and New Zealand, and other classics – the United States, Thailand, Canada and South Africa – continue to do well. But some more offbeat choices are also ahead of expectations. “Costa Rica and Vietnam have performed very well,” says head of marketing, Ed Bailey, “and Japan has also bounced back after recently reopening.”
Worldwide operator Exodus also highlights Costa Rica and Vietnam as strong performers, while for Elegant Resorts, Mauritius (up 47 per cent on last year) and South Africa (up 125 per cent) are leading the way. Tui’s sun-and-sand offering is also expanding further into Africa next year, with programmes launched to Senegal and Zanzibar, in Tanzania. By contrast, Discover the World says its Arctic destinations – notably Greenland and Svalbard – are doing well.
Cheaper
Holidays will certainly not be cheaper in 2023 than they were in 2022; the pressures of inflation, a weak pound and higher energy costs are unavoidable. Already, it seems, we are adapting to those realities by lowering our sights when it comes to accommodation. According to Expedia, there has been a sharp increase in searches for more modestly priced hotels – with inquiries into one- to three-star options up more than 20 per cent.
Kuoni, meanwhile, has just launched a range of three- and four-star resorts in the Maldives for 2023 and beyond, and Tui says it has added more lower-cost options to next year’s summer sun programme. However, upmarket sun-and-sand operator Sovereign says its customers are looking for value rather than downgrading, snapping up complimentary room upgrades or half-board options. This kind of creative bargain-hunting seems to be on the increase as people explore less expensive possibilities away from the traditional honeypots. In the UK, for example, Vrbo – the holiday homes specialist – says interest in counties including Leicestershire, Cambridgeshire, South Ayrshire and Monmouthshire has increased by 40 per cent in the past year.
Shorter
Another way of keeping costs down when times are tight – and without giving up on your holiday entirely – is to shorten it. You might take 10 days or a week rather than two weeks in the summer, for example, or cut a long weekend away down to just one night. It is too early to be sure how much of a trend this will become, but Tui says that some of its customers are already reducing the length of their stays, and Trivago’s average number of nights per trip booked for this autumn has dropped by 10 per cent compared with 2019. Axel Hefer, Trivago’s CEO, said that in 2023 “shorter city trips will likely be more popular”, listing Istanbul as one of the most searched-for cities on its site.
Longer
For trips further afield, where the cost of the flight is more of an issue, the relative savings of shortening your trip are obviously much less attractive. And you might even feel that with such a big financial and emotional investment, it is worth lengthening your holiday to make the most of it. That seems to be the response of many Trailfinders’ clients: it says that trip lengths increased throughout 2022 and – looking ahead to 2023 – remain longer than usual, especially to the classic, what it calls “big holiday” destinations, such as Australia.
As part of this, people are also booking more multi- or twin-centre holidays to make the most of a big trip. Long-haul specialist Audley Travel says the average duration for 2023 bookings is now 19 days, up from 17 days in 2022, and there is a shift towards more complex itineraries that involve multiple layovers. Kuoni reports a similar trend. And the interest in multi-centre holidays for long-haul travel is reflected closer to home, too, with Italian specialist Citalia reporting an increase in rail travel to connect multi-centre trips within Italy.
Deeper
As well as staying longer and adding destinations, getting maximum value out of your trip also means doing more. Liz Lunnon, head of product at Discover the World, says she has seeing people wanting “to pack in more experiences and activities”. And Trailfinders reports a similar trend, as well as increased interest in incorporating specific experiences, such as visits to see the northern lights; luxury rail journeys, such as the Orient Express to Venice, or the Rocky Mountaineer in Canada; and African safaris – especially to Kenya, Tanzania and Botswana. Luxury operator Scott Dunn has also seen strong growth in this area, with an 80 per cent uplift in demand for three-week-long “bucket list” adventures since the pandemic.
A less expensive side to the trend is a growth in demand for cultural excursions – from wine-tasting to art appreciation, battlefield tours to bird-watching – as part of more mainstream holidays. Tui offers some 25,000 day trips and experiences across 115 countries and it says that each customer books an average of two of these on each holiday, a number it expects to increase in 2023. Meanwhile, Expedia brands’ president, Jon Gieselman, says it is seeing a surge in trips to “culture-rich” cities with strong art offerings and cultural festivities. Expedia lists Edinburgh, Lisbon, Tokyo, Dublin and Sydney as the top five such destinations with the largest increases.
Greener
According to Scott Dunn, some 80 per cent of its guests now rank “responsible travel” as an important consideration when planning a holiday. And a recent Expedia survey of 11,000 people from 11 countries, including the UK, suggests that 90 per cent of consumers “are looking for sustainable options when travelling”, with 50 per cent saying they are willing to pay more for transport, activities and accommodation if the option is more sustainable.
Whether that filters through to a willingness to pay more in reality is never certain, especially during a recession. Nevertheless, travel firms seem to be taking the issue of responsibility more and more seriously. According to Expedia, some 60 per cent of travel companies made changes in the past year to improve their credibility in this area. Market leader Tui is making sustainability a big focus of its programme with the recent announcement that 650 of the hotels it offers (covering about a third of its customers) have now been credited as “green and fair”.
This means they meet sustainability credentials set by the Global Sustainable Tourism Council (an independent organisation). And British Airways has just announced a new sustainability programme, BA Better World, which, as well as increasing the proportion of sustainable aviation fuel it uses, now enables customers to reduce their carbon footprint by buying into carbon-reduction projects to offset long-haul flights.
More inclusive
For sun-and-sand packages, one key way of predicting and controlling your holiday costs – and also protecting yourself from currency fluctuations – is to book an all-inclusive holiday, where your meals, drinks and often some activities are paid for in advance. This has become increasingly popular: Tui says that 67 per cent of its bookings now fall into this category; Sovereign says it is seeing a noticeable increase; and Kuoni reports a rise in bookings for all-inclusive holidays in Europe, the Indian Ocean and the Caribbean.
Fitter
The growth in interest in wellness and activity holidays has been well-documented over the past couple of decades. For a hotel with four or more stars, the likes of spas, yoga rooms and activity programmes are now de rigueur, whether in beach resorts, at country and mountain retreats, or in some city hotels. And there is no sign of it coming to an end. Some 31 per cent of Tui’s customers now book a wellness experience (which might be anything from a fitness session to a spa treatment) as part of their holiday – up from 23 per cent in 2018.
According to a survey by Hotels.com, a quarter of Brits have become more open to the idea of a wellness break, with a new tendency to look for exotic treatments and experiences. The quirkier the better, it seems, with activities such as forest bathing, fruit harvesting and body therapies such as cryotherapy piquing curiosity. Meanwhile, walkers and cyclists continue to become more adventurous. Headwater – which specialises in both – is seeing increased interest in more far-flung destinations and has added the US states of Vermont and Maine along with British Columbia in Canada to its programme for 2023.
Earlier
It is a calculated gamble whether you book your holiday early in the hope of getting a price incentive and the biggest choice of accommodation and flights, or leave things until the eleventh hour. Tui says it is seeing customers for all types of holidays, especially those of longer durations, booking “earlier and earlier”. As proof, it has just launched its summer 2024 programme, so you can book more than 18 months in advance. According to Trailfinders, this pattern is affecting its cruise bookings, with some customers already committing to departures as far ahead as 2025.
Later
Last-minute discounts have always been an important part of travel bargain-hunting, and if you are uncertain about your job prospects, it also means you don’t have to commit in advance and risk finding yourself out of work by the time it comes to paying the bill. We don’t yet know how much of a trend this will be next year.
However, some operators say that customers have been booking later than usual. Exodus is expecting the late market to remain strong in the first half of 2023, while Kuoni says that it is seeing a later booking pattern across most of the destinations it offers. Trailfinders has been surprised recently by a “huge influx” of last-minute bookings for Australia and New Zealand, travelling in January and February 2023. However, it adds that while lead times shortened throughout 2022, they are starting to return to normal for most destinations.