Putin's latest move reveals the Kremlin’s internal dysfunction

It is not uncommon for senior military commanders to be replaced during war.

The type of person needed to build, equip and field a military force may be utterly unsuited to the job of leading those formations on the battlefield.

Even those blooded through combat may not have the nous and personality to step up to run the whole show.

Gen Montgomery was nearly sacked on multiple occasions as the Second World War ground to a conclusion. His strategic acumen was only just able to make up for his abrasive personality.

In turn, in the tumultuous last few months of the war when it was obvious the Allies were going to win, he was ruthless in excising unnecessary caution in his subordinates, given the continued need for someone to do the killing and make the sacrifices.

Nevertheless, Monty inspired loyalty in those he commanded.

Vladimir Putin’s decision to remove from post - effectively to demote - Gen Sergey Surovikin as overall commander of Moscow’s forces in Ukraine is unlikely to generate similar support through Russian ranks.

Gen Surovikin was brought in to replace Gen Aleksandr Dvornikov, nicknamed “the Syrian butcher” and a man who only lasted three months in the top job himself. 

The new boss immediately stamped his authority on the war.

First, he convinced the Russian president to cede the city of Kherson back to Ukraine, rather than risk losing more troops and equipment. 

Second, he was the architect of the air campaign against civilian infrastructure, betting - wrongly - that he could break the Ukrainians' spirit through repeated missile barrages.

Is Gen Surovikin’s replacement by Gen Valery Gerasimov, the head of Russia’s entire armed forces, a change born of the failure of the air campaign? Or has Putin laid bare the Kremlin’s internal dysfunction?

It is telling that Gen Surovikin has been sacked as top dog, but only demoted as far as deputy commander. It suggests the air bombardments will continue, even if Russia’s existing security establishment, embodied by the Ministry of Defence (MoD), seems to have reasserted its authority

It also suggests Putin could not afford the personal ignominy of losing a man he decorated for bravery and dedication to service only on Dec 31.

So why the change?

The blasted ground of Soledar, in the Donbas region, has been the scene of intense fighting between Russia and Ukraine. It has also exploded the simmering conflict between the MoD and upstart disruptors such as the mercenary Wagner Group.

Yevgeny Prigozhin - Wagner’s boss and, ostensibly, a businessman better known as “Putin’s chef” for his lucrative Kremlin catering contracts - sees military victory in Soledar as a means of furthering his prestige in Moscow’s power circles. 

He has made clear he considers any advances in Soledar to be thanks to his fighters alone - a charge Russia’s regular army chiefs disputed and, tellingly, publicly rebuked.

Mr Prigozhin has been a vocal supporter of Gen Surovikin - who, as commander of the greatest Russian geopolitical headache of modern times, also enjoyed direct access to Putin.

Poisoned chalice

And what of Gen Gerasimov?

It is questionable whether he will be able to concentrate on winning the war whilst also running the rest of the military.

It has been suggested he is being set up to bear the responsibility for any eventual failure. At the very least, he has been handed a poisoned chalice.

The replacement will likely be spun by Moscow as heralding a new period of military success. With the air campaign continuing under Gen Surovikin’s stewardship, it will leave room for Gen Gerasimov to think more broadly, to come up with a strategy to win the war, supporters will say.

That, however, is to gloss over the dire state of Russia’s situation and likely future ability to pull a rabbit from the burning hat of Ukraine’s battlefields.

In Russia’s top-heavy system of governance, Gen Gerasimov has been ideally placed for months to exert his strategic genius over events, if indeed it exists. He has not done so yet. 

It is extremely questionable whether he will be able to now, with a broken army, a poisonous political court back in Moscow and with Kyiv enjoying increasing external support.

What we are witnessing is palace intrigue at its sharpest, rather than an energising shake-up of command.